Roubini: Shocking Data Will Sink Stocks, Earnings

[Herb Schaffler]

Roubini: Shocking Data Will Sink Stocks, Earnings


Tuesday, 26 Jan 2010 10:36 AM



By: Dan Weil
Stock market rallies are likely to fizzle during the second half of the year in developed economies, says investment guru Nouriel Roubini.

That’s because sluggish economic recovery will curb gains in corporate earnings, the New York University professor maintains.

“The real economy is gradually recovering, but since March, asset prices have gone through the roof,” Roubini said in a recent speech, according to Bloomberg.

“If I’m correct, by the second half of the year, there’s going to be a slowdown of growth in the U.S., Europe and Japan," he said.

"That could be the beginning of a market correction because the macroeconomic news is going to surprise on the downside.”

Commodities are likely to escape the decline thanks to strong demand from emerging markets, Roubini says.

But he sees trouble ahead for emerging markets too.

Asset bubbles brewing there, if left unchecked, could trigger an “unraveling and a significant correction of asset prices which will be damaging to global and regional economic growth,” Roubini said.

“In emerging markets economies like China and India, inflation is already returning to positive levels because there’s high economic growth and policy boosts.”

Roubini isn’t alone in his views on emerging markets.

Even perennial bull Mark Mobius, executive chairman of Franklin Templeton Investments, says a correction is in order.

“We continue to see upside, but with substantial corrections along the way, which could be as much as 20 percent,” he told The New York Times.
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