Black Voters Shift from Hillary to Obama

[jcscuba]

Blacks Shift To Obama, Poll Finds

By [LINK POSTED BY MEMBER] Only Members Can View This No Hillary For President Forum Link.
Washington Post Staff Writers
Wednesday, February 28, 2007; Page A01

The opening stages of the campaign for the 2008 Democratic presidential nomination have produced a noticeable shift in sentiment among African American voters, who little more than a month ago heavily supported [LINK POSTED BY MEMBER] Only Members Can View This No Hillary For President Forum Link. but now favor the candidacy of [LINK POSTED BY MEMBER] Only Members Can View This No Hillary For President Forum Link. .
Clinton, of New York, continues to lead Obama and other rivals in the Democratic contest, according to the latest Washington Post-ABC News poll. But her once-sizable margin over the freshman senator from Illinois was sliced in half during the past month largely because of Obama's growing support among black voters.


In the Republican race, former New York mayor Rudolph W. Giuliani, who recently made clear his intentions to seek the presidency, has expanded his lead over [LINK POSTED BY MEMBER] Only Members Can View This No Hillary For President Forum Link. of Arizona. Giuliani holds a 2 to 1 advantage over McCain among Republicans, according to the poll, more than tripling his margin of a month ago.
The principal reason was a shift among white evangelical Protestants, who now clearly favor Giuliani over McCain. Giuliani is doing well among this group of Americans despite his support of abortion rights and gay rights, two issues of great importance to religious conservatives. McCain opposes abortion rights.
Among Democrats, Clinton still enjoys many of the advantages of a traditional front-runner. Pitted against Obama and former senator John Edwards of North Carolina, she was seen by Democrats as the candidate with the best experience to be president, as the strongest leader, as having the best chance to get elected, as the closest to voters on the issues and as the candidate who best understands the problems "of people like you." Obama was seen as the most inspirational.
The Post-ABC News poll was completed days after aides to the two leading Democrats engaged in a testy exchange over comments critical of Clinton and her husband, former president Bill Clinton, by Hollywood mogul David Geffen, a former friend and financial backer of the Clintons who held a fundraiser for Obama last week in Los Angeles.
Early national polls are not always good predictors for presidential campaigns, but the Post-ABC poll offers clues to the competition ahead.
On the January weekend when she announced her candidacy, Clinton led the Democratic field with 41 percent. Obama was second at 17 percent, Edwards was third at 11 percent and former vice president Al Gore, who has said he has no plans to run, was fourth at 10 percent.
The latest poll put Clinton at 36 percent, Obama at 24 percent, Gore at 14 percent and Edwards at 12 percent. None of the other Democrats running received more than 3 percent. With Gore removed from the field, Clinton would gain ground on Obama, leading the Illinois senator 43 percent to 27 percent. Edwards ran third at 14 percent. The poll was completed the night Gore's documentary film "An Inconvenient Truth" won an Academy Award.
Clinton's and Obama's support among white voters changed little since December, but the shifts among black Democrats were dramatic. In December and January Post-ABC News polls, Clinton led Obama among African Americans by 60 percent to 20 percent. In the new poll, Obama held a narrow advantage among blacks, 44 percent to 33 percent. The shift came despite four in five blacks having a favorable impression of the New York senator.
African Americans view Clinton even more positively than they see Obama, but in the time since he began his campaign, his favorability rating rose significantly among blacks. In the latest poll, 70 percent of African Americans said they had a favorable impression of Obama, compared with 54 percent in December and January.
Overall, Clinton's favorability ratings dipped slightly from January, with 49 percent of Americans having a favorable impression and 48 percent an unfavorable impression. Obama's ratings among all Americans improved over the past month, with 53 percent saying they have a favorable impression and 30 percent saying they have an unfavorable impression.

Her position on the war in Iraq does not appear to be hurting Clinton among Democrats, even though she has faced hostile questioning from some voters about her 2002 vote authorizing President Bush to go to war. Some Democrats have demanded that she apologize for the vote, which she has declined to do.
The Post-ABC News poll found that 52 percent of Democrats said her vote was the right thing to do at the time, while 47 percent said it was a mistake. Of those who called it a mistake, however, 31 percent said she should apologize. Among Democrats who called the war the most important issue in deciding their 2008 candidate preference, Clinton led Obama 40 to 26 percent.


In the Republican contest, McCain was once seen as the early, if fragile, front-runner for his party's nomination, but Giuliani's surge adds a new dimension to the race. In the latest poll, the former New York mayor led among Republicans with 44 percent to McCain's 21 percent. Last month, Giuliani led with 34 percent to McCain's 27 percent.
Former House speaker Newt Gingrich of Georgia ran third in the latest poll with 15 percent, while former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney was fourth with 4 percent. Gingrich has not said he definitely plans to run, and without him, Giuliani's lead would increase even more, to 53 percent compared with McCain's 23 percent.
When Republicans were asked to rate Giuliani, McCain and Romney on a series of attributes, Giuliani was seen as the strongest leader, the most inspiring, the candidate with the best chance of winning the general election, the most honest and trustworthy and the one closest to them on the issues. McCain was seen as having the best experience to be president, but only by a narrow margin.
Giuliani faces potential problems because of his views on abortion and gay rights. More than four in 10 Republicans said they were less likely to support him because of those views. More than two in 10 Republicans said there was "no chance" they would vote for him.
With Clinton and Obama as possible barrier-breakers in this presidential campaign, Americans were asked how a candidate's race or sex would affect their vote. What the poll showed is that Americans indicated they were less likely to support a candidate older than 72 or a candidate who is a Mormon than a female or black candidate.
Those findings could affect McCain, who is 70, and Romney, who is a Mormon. Nearly six in 10 said they would be less likely to vote for someone older than 72, while three in 10 said they would be less likely to support a Mormon.
The Post-ABC News poll was conducted by telephone Feb. 22-25 among a random sample of 1,082 adults, including an oversample of 86 black respondents. The margin of sampling error for the poll was plus or minus three percentage points; it is higher for the sub-samples.
Polling analyst Jennifer Agiesta contributed to this report.

[Herb Schaffler]

A new Zogby poll is out which shows Obama closing the gap with Hillary, Hillary 33% to Obama's 25%. In matchups against Republicans for the general election, Hillary would lose to both Giuliani and McCain: Giuliani 47% to Hillary's 40%, McCain 47% to Hillary's 39%. Obama is actually polling ahead of Giuliani and McCain: Obama 46% to Giuliani's 40% and Obama 44% to to McCain's 40%. I hope that enough Democrats take notice of that poll and switch to Obama, feeling he has a greater chance of winning the general election than Hillary. The poll also found that fully 54% of Hillary's supporters are willing to switch from their support for her, so the support that she has is not that strong overall. I also hope that Obama's campaign catches enough fire to keep Gore out. I would rather the Democrats nominate Obama than Hillary or Gore. I don't agree with Obama's economics, but I don't see much difference in his economics and Hillary's and Gore's. I can't stand Hillary because not only is she a socialist, she's a crook and a sleezy politician. I can't stand Gore's global warming sensationalism. There is a cyclical warming trend that has been going on since the end of the little ice age in the 19th century. It has not been proven that man's contribution of CO2 has contributed significantly to the temperature or climate. Man's contribution of CO2 to the atmosphere amounts to only 2%. Satellite temperature readings show very little increase in temperature. Data on sea level rise shows very little increase. There is no reason to expect a rise in 20 feet like Gore claims. A new ice age will come before anything near that level of a rise in sea level happens. Hurricanes have nothing to do global warming. They operate on a natural 70 year cycle of frequency and severity. Since most of the warming is in the northernmost latitudes, it results in less temperature differential between northernmost and southernmost temperatures in the northern hemisphere. This lower temperature differential results in less frequent and less severe tornadoes. Historically, tornadoes have been more severe and frequent during cooler periods. It will be bad if Gore and the greenies scare us into signing onto the Kyoto treaty and end up destroying our economy for virtually no change in the temperature and climate. In fact, there's no reason to do anything. Humanity prospered during the medieval warming period when temperatures were warmer then than they are now.

[jcscuba]

Herb: Great post, a poll I put up yesterday by Dick Morris indicates that MCCain's days may be numbered. I'd put Rudy up against any of them. This is getting to really be fun, I want Hillary to stay in this as long as possible so the world can see her true RED colors.
From what I've read, Obama's economics are a bit to the left of Hillary's. It's funny, the Democrats haven't had an original idea since the 60's. When we Republicans run from our core values we get our ##### kicked. I hold W. accountable for spending a bit more on social programs than he needed. Let the games begin. If you can figure out or know how to rate a string let me know in a private email. I've searched FAQ and the comments don't make sense. Yours would have got 5 gold stars. Thanks, Jim

[Herb Schaffler]

The reason I consider Hillary, Edwards, and Obama to be evenly socialistic is that the ADA gives each one a 100% rating. I'm sure Gore would be up there too, but he hasn't had a Senate voting record in a long time.

[jcscuba]

Originally Posted by Herb Schaffler

The reason I consider Hillary, Edwards, and Obama to be evenly socialistic is that the ADA gives each one a 100% rating. I'm sure Gore would be up there too, but he hasn't had a Senate voting record in a long time.

You are absolutely correct. The lesser of 3 evils is evil. If the main stream majority can't get their act together and elect a fiscal conservative that understands the purpose of the military our Country will be in bad shape. Just how much socialism do we need? I've stated recently in an article I just read 1 in 7 people in Western European countries live below the poverty level in their respective country. That's what the Dems have planned for us. Remember the Rich get Richer!

[I love Pink]

At this point, the polls don't mean a thing, they shift on a daily basis. As far as the blacks swinging to Obama, big deal, they don't turn out to vote with any serious damage. Besides, when they see that Senator Obama is nothing more than an articulate person with nice teeth, but no ideas or plans and essentially and empty suit, even the black vote will vote with Hillary because they can trust her as can we all. She will repair the damage done to our country by the Neo-Cons and the Bush Administration. Cheers, Jennifer

[nohil-billy]

I disagree pink. The black vote is an important special interest group that can effect the outcome of an election. As for blacks flocking back to Hillary, don't count on it. The blacks tend to vote for their own regardless of what they offer or how they perform. Ray Nagin and Marion Barry are two prime examples.