Obama Leads McCain by 8 Points

[Herb Schaffler]

Wednesday, May 21, 2008 8:19 AM



Democrat Barack Obama has opened an 8-point national lead on Republican John McCain as the U.S. presidential rivals turn their focus to a general election race, according to a Reuters/Zogby poll released on Wednesday.

Obama, who was tied with McCain in a hypothetical head-to-head matchup last month, moved to a 48 percent to 40 percent lead over the Arizona senator in May as he took command of his grueling Democratic presidential duel with rival Hillary Clinton.

The Illinois senator has not yet secured the Democratic presidential nomination to run against McCain in November.

The poll also found Obama expanded his lead over Clinton in the Democratic race to 26 percentage points, doubling his advantage from mid-April as Democrats begin to coalesce around Obama and prepare for the general election battle with McCain.

"Obama has been very resilient, bouncing back from rough periods and doing very well with independent voters," pollster John Zogby said. "The race with McCain is going to be very competitive."

The poll was taken Thursday through Sunday during a period when Obama came under attack from President George W. Bush and McCain for his promise to talk to hostile foreign leaders without preconditions.

Obama's gains followed a month in which he was plagued with a series of campaign controversies and suffered two big losses to Clinton in Pennsylvania and West Virginia.

The poll was conducted after Obama denounced his former pastor, the Rev. Jeremiah Wright, who made a series of public appearances that rekindled a controversy over his inflammatory comments on race and religion.

Obama also survived a furor over his comments about "bitter" small-town residents who cling to guns and religion out of frustration over their economic concerns.

Obama edged closer to clinching the Democratic nomination on Tuesday when he split two nominating contests with Clinton, beating the New York senator in Oregon and losing in Kentucky to gain a majority of pledged delegates won in state-by-state nominating contests.

The results put him within easy range of the 2,026 delegates needed for the nomination. Just three Democratic nominating contests remain before voting concludes on June 3.

OBAMA BETTER ON ECONOMY

The poll found Obama was seen as a better steward of the economy than McCain, leading 48 percent to 39 percent. McCain led Obama by 3 points last month on an issue that is certain to be crucial in their campaign.

Obama led McCain among independents, 47 percent to 35 percent, and led among some groups of voters who have backed Clinton during their Democratic primary battle, including Catholics, Jews, union households and voters making less than $35,000 a year.

McCain led among whites, NASCAR fans, and elderly voters. McCain led with voters who believed the United States was on the right track, and Obama led with the much higher percentage of voters who believed it was on the wrong track.

"Clearly voters are looking for change. Every problem Obama has had in consolidating his base and reaching to the center, John McCain has the same sort of problem," Zogby said.

"It's McCain's lead among voters over the age of 65 that is keeping him within shouting distance of Obama," he said.

The poll found Clinton, who has shrugged off calls to quit the Democratic race, tied at 43 percent with McCain in the national poll. She led McCain by 47 percent to 40 percent on who would be the better manager of the economy.

Obama and Clinton have refrained from attacking each other in recent weeks as Obama has turned his focus to McCain.

But Zogby said the attacks on Obama by Bush and McCain, who have been critical of his willingness to talk to leaders of countries like Iran, did not appear to hurt Obama. If anything, he said, it reminded voters of McCain's ties to Bush, whose approval rating is still mired at record lows.

"The president is so unpopular. To inject himself into a presidential campaign does not help John McCain, particularly when McCain is tied to Bush," Zogby said.

The national survey of 516 likely Democratic primary voters had a margin of error of 4.4 percentage points. The poll of the national race between McCain and the two Democratic contenders surveyed 1,076 likely voters with a margin of error of 3 percentage points.





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[smoothbore]

Not surprising.

It is a lifetime in political terms until the fall elections, I am sure the see-saw will totter back and forth several times....or not, since the media is in love with BO.

Patrick

[Herb Schaffler]

From Americans away from home.com"

Barack Obama leads John McCain by 10 points nationwide, in a poll including Libertarian Bob Barr and Liberal Ralph Nader, according to the latest Reuters/Zogby telephone poll.

There is good news and good news.

Among Democrats, Obama has 79% support, which may show that Democrats are uniting. Independent voters prefer Obama to McCain by 48% to 32%.

Obama led McCain among all voters, but McCain has more older voters, 45% to 34%. Obama leads among voters under age 30, and is 13 points ahead among voters age 50 to 64.

"Obama has been very resilient, bouncing back from rough periods and doing very well with independent voters," John Zogby said.

Zogby said attacks on Obama by Bush and McCain only reminded voters of the ties between McCain and Bush, according to Reuters.

"The president is so unpopular. To inject himself into a presidential campaign does not help John McCain, particularly when McCain is tied to Bush," Zogby said.

The survey also looked at the effects of Libertarian Bob Barr and Liberal Ralph Nader. Barr could hurt support from McCain's base with very conservative and libertarian voters, supported by these groups by 10% (self-described "very conservative" voters) and 22% (philosophical libertarians) respectively.

Ralph Nader could also hurt Obama. He received 6% support among mainline liberals, and 3% among progressives.

The undecided vote effect could be big; 10% were either undecided between Obama and McCain or preferred another candidate.

Hillary Clinton and McCain were almost tied in the poll, with Clinton winning 41% and McCain winning 40%.

An interesting result: In a contest with McCain, Clinton won just 70% support from African-Americans, 25% less than Obama wins from that group.

Obama has a growing lead over Clinton among Democrats nationally, leading her 59% to 39%.

With Democrats sorted by political philosophy, Obama leads moderates, mainline liberals, and progressives; Clinton leads only among conservative Democrats.

Obama also led Clinton among both Catholics and Protestants, and among those who claim no religious affiliation.

The live-operator telephone survey was conducted May 15-18, 2008, and included 1,076 likely voters nationwide. The poll carries a margin of error of +/- 3.0 percentage points.

[Herb Schaffler]

US elections: Barack Obama juggernaut 'will crush John McCain'

By Toby Harnden in Des Moines, Iowa
Last Updated: 8:49PM BST 21/05/2008

Senator Barack Obama has established a battle-tested 50-state grassroots organisation and fundraising “juggernaut” that will crush John McCain in November, according to his senior advisers.


EPA
Barack Obama's campaign has already pivoted to preparing for the general election against Republican John McCain

With the Illinois senator declaring himself “within reach” of the Democratic nomination after achieving a majority of the pledged delegates - those allocated by vote - on Tuesday, his campaign has already pivoted to preparing for the general election against Mr McCain, the presumptive Republican nominee.

Although publicly heaping praise on Hillary Clinton, Mr Obama’s Democratic rival, and carefully avoiding putting pressure on her to drop out before the final states vote on June 3rd, the Illinois senator’s staff is impatient to launch a full-scale offensive against Mr McCain.

But they believe that the ferocious fight Mrs Clinton has put up has helped them build an organisation of unprecedented strength.
“I don’t think John McCain realises what he’s in for,” said one adviser. “We’ve created a juggernaut,” said another, “and it’s going to overwhelm him.”
They cite their internet fundraising operation, the grassroots organising network that secured victory over Mrs Clinton by winning a series of caucus states and hundreds of thousands of idealistic young volunteers as crucial advantages over Mr McCain.
Democrats have attracted colossal numbers of new voters - in just seven primary states in March and April, some one million new party members were registered.
At Mr Obama’s campaign headquarters in Chicago, the focus is firmly on the general election. Even on primary day on Tuesday with contests against Mrs Clinton in Kentucky and Oregon a large sign in the open plan office announced: “Countdown to Nov 4th -167 days”.

Joe Trippi, a Democratic consultant who pioneered some of the successful grassroots and internet techniques when he ran Howard Dean’s campaign in 2004, said that John McCain is already in “deep, deep trouble” because of a poor organisation and an anaemic fundraising total of about a fifth of the $500 million raised by Mr Obama and Mrs Clinton.

“Obama’s got the strongest organisation in history because of what he’s done with the internet and plugging volunteers into the paid organisers operation. McCain’s team is in a shambles. He has no organisation and no grassroots fundraising operation.”

More than 100 staff and volunteers, the majority of them in their 20s and dressed casually, work in the Obama headquarters, leased from the consulting firm Accenture on the 11th floor of a downtown skyscraper.

The atmosphere is akin to that of an internet start-up company - relaxed but with an earnest calm. Only a handful of senior staff have glass offices and there is none for Mr Obama himself, who drops in every time he returns to Chicago.

Although Mrs Clinton scored a 35-point victory in Kentucky, Mr Obama’s comfortable double-digit win in Oregon put him a whisker away from securing the Democratic nomination. On Thursday, he begins a three-day trip to Florida, a key swing state that is a must-win for Mr McCain.

Mr Obama has quietly begun to take over the Democratic party. Paul Tewes, who masterminded the Iowa victory in January that stunned Mrs Clinton and set Mr Obama on the path to the nomination, is expected to expected to run the party during the general election.

There have also been overtures to key members of Mrs Clinton’s staff.

David Axelrod, Mr Obama’s chief strategist, is understood to have held talks with Patti Solis Doyle, a senior Clinton adviser who was ousted as her campaign manager in February.

Mr Obama’s advisers believe he can win in states such as Iowa, Colorado, Virginia, New Mexico and Missouri that President George W. Bush won in 2004, though they concede they have work to do in Michigan and Florida, where he has not campaigned extensively because their primaries were disallowed by the party.

“We’ve become a very tested organisation, “said Robert Gibbs, Mr Obama’s communication director and his closest aide after Mr Axelrod. “We’ve built organisations in every place int his country. We don’t have to start building anything from scratch.

“Once we become the nominee, that’s going to be tremendously important for the fall [autumn] because as we’ve seen in the last two presidential elections, it’s all about turnout. We think we can not only expand the map in terms of the states in play but also expand the electorate within each one of those states.”

Mr Obama’s campaign team has been remarkably stable with his inner circle of Mr Axelrod, Mr Gibbs, David Plouffe, the campaign manager, and others remaining unchanged.

In contrast, Mr McCain has sacked or lost a string of senior aides, when his campaign ran out of money and virtually collapsed last July and again this month when at least five advisers left because of conflicts over their lobbying for businesses and foreign governments.

This week, Mark McKinnon, Mr McCain’s media adviser, stepped down because, as he said last year, electing Mr Obama would “send a great message to the country and the world”.

Mr Trippi said: “Obama has been battered, beaten, screamed at, yelled at, kicked and - nothing, totally unflappable, his staff’s unflappable, no schisms. McCain has imploded twice. So you have to have more confidence in Obama’s ability to put a team together and keep it together.”