Obama Has Enough Deleates to Win

[Herb Schaffler]

Barack Obama ‘has enough super-delegates support to win Democratic nomination’

By [LINK POSTED BY MEMBER] Only Members Can View This No Hillary For President Forum Link. | The Hillary Project



By Tim Shipman
Telegraph - Barack Obama believes he has already secured the private support of enough super-delegates to beat Hillary Clinton in the race for the Democratic White House nomination, The Sunday Telegraph has learned.
The Illinois senator last week switched his attention to the general election battle against John McCain after locking down more than enough pledges to reach the victory target of 2,025 delegates.
A senior Democrat strategist, familiar with discussions at the highest levels of the Obama camp, has revealed that Mr Obama is now confident of the support of around 120 of the remaining 260 undeclared superdelegates.
His aides believe he will only need between 70 and 80 to be sure of the nomination if he wins the Oregon, Montana and South Dakota primaries as expected ater this month.
The strategist said: "The reason he's behaving like he's won it, is because he thinks he has won it. His numbers man now thinks they have enough firm support to get to 2,025."
Out of respect for Hillary Clinton many have insisted that their allegiance remains private until after the final primary election on June 3. Others will go public to maintain Mr Obama's momentum if Mrs Clinton, as expected, wins a handsome victory in West Virginia on Tuesday.

By one estimate Mr Obama grabbed the lead in superdelegates for the first time on Friday, after picking up seven public endorsements in a day. At one time he trailed Mrs Clinton by more than 100. His lead in pledged delegates, selected by voters, means he now enjoys an insurmountable lead of 160 over the former First Lady.
The strategist said Mr Obama has "no intention" of making Mrs Clinton his running mate, but that he is prepared to offer an olive branch to her supporters by seating delegates from Michigan and Florida, won by Mrs Clinton but excluded because they broke party rules.
A second well placed Democrat, who has discussed tactics with Mr Obama's aides, says they are happy for Mrs Clinton to contest the remaining primaries as long as she does not try to take down Mr Obama with her.
He said: "They are going to concentrate on McCain and just let the psychodrama play itself out to a dwindling audience. They know they have to be respectful of her because they will need her supporters in November."
Chris Kofinis, another Democratic strategist, who was John Edwards' press secretary, warned that Mrs Clinton's claim on Thursday that her rival suffers from dwindling support among white voters went too far.
"That's the kind of divisive talk they can't pursue," he said. "I don't think anyone will have a problem with her staying in unless she goes for a scorched earth strategy. I think Senator Clinton will do what she needs to do when she thinks the time is right. This is now an insurmountable task for her. Most, if not all of the people in her campaign realise that when they're talking honestly."
If Mrs Clinton does try to drag down Mr Obama, his aides will ask the privately pledged superdelegates to go public sooner.
Mr Obama will now sharpen his rhetoric, tackling Senator McCain over Iraq and the economy. And yesterday, with an eye on November's general election, he began a nationwide voter registration drive to ensure the maximum Democratic turnout.
Obama aides also revealed last week that victory in the Oregon primary on May 20 would give him a clear majority of the elected delegates, a victory they believe superdelegates would not overturn and one they plan to mark with a rally in his home state.

[Herb Schaffler]

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Friday shows Barack Obama attracting 47% of the vote while John McCain earns 44%. This is the fourth straight day that Obama has had at least a one-point advantage over McCain. While it is not a statistically significant lead, it is the first time Obama has led McCain on consecutive days in two months. The last time Obama outpolled McCain for four straight days was in mid-February ([LINK POSTED BY MEMBER] Only Members Can View This No Hillary For President Forum Link. .One key to this changing dynamic is that Obama now leads McCain among unaffiliated voters by nine percentage points.

As we look to November, the Obama-McCain match-up will feature a clear generational component. Obama leads by twenty-three percentage points among voters under 40 while McCain leads by eleven among those over 50.
Among all voters nationwide, McCain is viewed favorably by 49% and unfavorably by 48%. Obama’s numbers are now a bit better than McCain’s—51% favorable and 47% unfavorable. That’s the third straight day that Obama’s favorable ratings have been higher than McCain’s. Prior to these past three days, that hadn’t happened since March 10. For Clinton, the reviews are a bit less flattering--45% favorable and 53% unfavorable.

In the race for the Democratic Presidential Nomination, Obama holds a 50% to 42% advantage over Clinton nationally. That’s the first time Obama has reached the 50% level of support since April 15 (

[Herb Schaffler]

PRINCETON, NJ -- For the first time in nearly three weeks, the statistical tie between Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton in Gallup Poll Daily tracking of national Democratic preferences has been broken, with Obama now ahead by seven percentage points, 50% to 43%.

[Herb Schaffler]

May 13, 2008
Carville: Obama likely to win nomination
Posted: 09:48 AM ET

From CNN Political Producer Peter Hamby


"James Carville is supporting Hillary Clinton's White House bid.
(CNN) — James Carville has been one of Hillary Clinton's most energetic defenders, but on Monday he all but declared Barack Obama will become the Democratic nominee for president.

Speaking to students at Furman University in Greenville, South Carolina, Carville argued Clinton should stay in through the final nominating contest in early June, but said the Democratic tide appears to be moving in Obama's direction.

"I still hear some dogs barking," Carville said, according to The State newspaper. "I'm for Senator Clinton, but I think the great likelihood is that Obama will be the nominee."

"As soon as I determine when that is, I'll send him a check," he added.

Asked about who might share a ticket with Obama, Carville floated Clinton's name, as well as that of Clinton ally Gen. Wesley Clark. Carville also mentioned Kansas Gov. Kathleen Sebelius and New York City mayor Michael Bloomberg as possible running mates, according the Greenville News."

Somebody at the Obama blog asked if this means that Carville is now a Judas.

[Herb Schaffler]

According to the latest Reuters poll:

In a general election matchup, McCain trails Democratic front-runner Barack Obama by 7 points, 44 percent to 51 percent. In a head-to-head competition with U.S. Sen. Hillary Clinton, McCain runs almost even with the New York Democrat, 46 percent to 49 percent.

According to the poll, 60 percent of Democrats now say Obama is the one with the better shot at defeating McCain in November.

Trailing Obama in pledged delegates, the popular vote and superdelegates, Clinton has shown no sign of quitting the race for the Democratic presidential nomination and voters do not appear ready to push her out.

Nearly two-thirds of Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents said Clinton should stay in the race and 40 percent said she should be Obama's running-mate if he becomes the Democratic nominee.

The telephone poll of 1,122 adults was conducted May 8-11, 2008, among a random national sample of 1,122 adults. The results from the full survey have a 3 point error margin; among the 620 leaned Democrats the margin of error was 4 points.