New LA Times Poll

[Herb Schaffler]

These polls are all over the place. Yesterday, I mentioned two polls in Pennsylvania that showed Hillary leading Obama by around 20 points but the new LA Times/Bloomberg poll shows that Hillary only leads Obama by 5 points in Pennsylvania which is close to most recent polls that I've seen. The poll was taken Thursday through Sunday so it includes some people who have heard the "small town" flack over the weekend. The LA Times/Bloomberg poll also polled Indiana and North Carolina voters. Obama is ahead of Hillary in Indiana by 5 points and is ahead of her in North Carolina by 13 points. There is some volatility in these polls as there are 12% in Pennsylvania who are undecided, 19% in Indiana, and 17% in North Carolina so big blunders by either candidate or news of new scandals or whatever could easily change the results at least in Pennsylvania and Indiana.

[Herb Schaffler]

A new ABC poll is out which shows extensive data.

It shows that 58% of the public now consider Hillary untrustworthy.

By a 2 to 1 margin, Obama is seen as the most likely to defeat McCain.

54% view Hillary unfavorably. This is her highest unfavorablility rating ever. Her husband is also at his highest unfavorability rating ever at 51%.

A ratio of 4 to 1 Democrats blame Hillary for the negative tone of the Democratic race.

Democrats want Obama to win the nomination by 51 to 41, the biggest advantage for Obama to date.

Hillary has badly split the Democrat Party. 21% of Obama supporters would switch to McCain if Hillary is the nominee. 23% of Hillary supporters would switch to McCain if Obama is the nominee. When Reagan carried a quarter of the Democrats in 1980 and 1984, he won with landslides. However, with a non-conservative like McCain as the Republican nominee, 14% of Republicans will vote for Obama if he is the nominee while less than 7% of Republicans would vote for Hillary if she is the nominee.

To put the Democratic split another way, 61% of Obama supporters would vote for Hillary, but 38% would not. They would either not vote or vote for McCain or Nader or somebody else or not vote. 61% of Clinton supporters would vote for Obama, but 35% would not vote for him, would vote either for McCain or Nader or somebody else or not vote.

In a general election matchup, Obama would defeat McCain 49 to 44, but McCain would defeat Hillary 48 to 45.

[Herb Schaffler]

CQ has come up with an estimate of the probable outcome of the 103 elected delegates up for grabs in Pennsylvania. They estimate that even if Hillary were to win 60 to 40 in Pennsylvania, she would only win 53 to 50 among those delegates on the basis of how they're allocated. It's easy to see why Hillary is emphasizing the popular vote in trying to persuade the superdelegates to vote for her. In the new ABC poll, 46% of Democrats polled agreed that the superdelegates should vote on the basis of popular vote. This makes it important that if Hillary does win Pennsylvania, she doesn't win it by much, so she won't have that argument.

[Herb Schaffler]

A new Zogby Poll taken over the weekend is out. It shows that Obama is ahead of Hillary nationally by 51 to 38. Among whites, Obama is ahead 46 to 41 and among women he is ahead 48 to 42. Obama's lead over Hillary has grown 10 points since Zogby's last poll in March.

Zogby shows Obama and McCain running neck and neck. Obama was 6 points below McCain last month. McCain is ahead of Hillary 46 to 41. If Nader and Barr are added to the mix, Nader would get 3 points and Barr would get 2 points. It was found that both together would slightly hurt McCain against Obama. I guess some Hillary voters that would vote for McCain over Obama would switch to Nader as opposed to voting for McCain and conservatives that don't like McCain would vote for Barr.

[Herb Schaffler]

Sean Hannity and a Newsmax correspondent have been giving Stephanopoulis tips on questions to ask Obama tonight on the debate. I am very upset about Stephanopoulis being the moderator on this debate as he definitely represents a conflict of interest as he's a staunch Clinton supporter from way back. I have written ABC a protest about this. A lot of good it will do!

[Herb Schaffler]

According to Zogby, the Pennsylvania contest is now a dead heat. In polling taken on the 15th and 16th, Hillary now leads Obama 45 to 44. I think it will be so fantastic if Obama wins Pennsylvania, Indiana, and North Carolina. What will Hillary do then? Will she finally throw in the towel? It will be hard for her to convince the superdelegates to vote for her when she has such a hard time winning primaries, the polls show Obama doing better against McCain than she does against McCain, Obama has won more delegates, and has the most popular vote.

[WiseOne]

Yea, these polls are weird anymore. I think Hillary is REALLY hurting now...thanks you GOD!

[Corvair]

Originally Posted by Herb Schaffler

...I think it will be so fantastic if Obama wins Pennsylvania, Indiana, and North Carolina. What will Hillary do then? Will she finally throw in the towel?

Even if Obama wins those three, Piglet won't fold her tent. She'll be in denial, stamping her feet and pouting with clenched fists all the way to the convention floor, until the state-by-state roll call when she finally hears the words, "The Democratic nominee for president is Barack Obama!" By that point, she will look so petty and self-centered - as if she doesn't already - that she'll have ruined any future attempt at the nomination.

[nohil-billy]

A theory I heard floated on an evening talk show I listen to has had Bill Clinton peddling his future White House influence around the world for the last four years or so under the assumption that Hillary was the prohibitive favorite to be the next president. He and Hillary have a lot of IOU's out there that will not be satisfied should Hillary lose.

So maybe it's not that she won't get out, but rather that she can't.

[Corvair]

Originally Posted by nohil-billy

...under the assumption that Hillary was the prohibitive favorite to be the next president...

A lot of people have said similar things over the last few years, but it always seemed like such a ridiculous idea to me. Hillary Clinton??? President of the United States? Why, for God's sake??? Pardon my French, but who the hell is she to be considered for president? It just doesn't make any sense! Frankly, I'm very surprised she has done as well as she has in the primaries.

Here's a quick prayer - God, please allow the Pennsylvania voters to put this nasty freak out of our misery today, once and for all. Thank you. Amen.